The U.S.–Iran War and Its Lessons
The outbreak of war between Washington and Tehran has consumed American attention. U.S. forces are heavily committed in the Middle East, raising questions about the sustainability of their presence in Asia. While the U.S. alliance can remain, the Philippines must hedge against the possibility of diminished American focus. Friendship with China provides that needed hedge. It is not about abandoning the U.S., but about ensuring that future of the Philippines is not hostage to the distractions of distant wars made by a long-time ally. Marcos Jr.’s China reset can differ from his predecessors. Rodrigo Duterte tilted heavily toward China, often at the expense of U.S. ties by announcing a separation. Benigno Aquino III leaned assertively toward Washington, even pursuing legal action against Beijing. Marcos Jr. can seek a middle path: maintaining defense ties with the U.S. while cultivating closer friendship with China. This dual-track approach reflects pragmatism, resilience, and a recognition that survival in a multipolar world requires engaging both giants. Rather than to be torn between two lovers, the Philippines can get the best of both worlds.
Risks and Opportunities
The risks are real. Maritime incidents continue to test public patience. Domestic skepticism toward China remains strong. And balancing U.S. expectations with Beijing’s sensitivities requires deft diplomacy. But the alternative—choosing confrontation over friendship—would leave the Philippines vulnerable, isolated, and perpetually reactive to the agendas of others. The opportunities, however, are equally real. Friendship with China can deliver economic growth, cultural enrichment, and regional stability. It can provide the Philippines with the strategic space to maneuver in a world destabilized by wars far beyond its shores.
Toward ASEAN Solidarity
The Philippines cannot walk this path alone. Friendship with China must be pursued in concert with ASEAN neighbors, who face similar dilemmas of balancing sovereignty with cooperation. A collective approach—anchored in dialogue, regional mechanisms, and shared development projects—can transform the South China Sea from a theater of rivalry into a sea of friendship. ASEAN solidarity, built on the principle of engaging neighbors rather than confronting them, is the best guarantee of peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia.
Conclusion
Marcos Jr.’s China reset is, at its core, a pursuit of friendship. And friendship, in these uncertain times, is the most strategic choice the Philippines can make. It is not about choosing sides. It is about choosing survival. In a world on fire, friendship with China—and solidarity with ASEAN—are solid anchors. If Marcos Jr.’s China reset succeeds, the South China Sea can become not a wall of division, but a bridge of friendship—linking nations, fostering cooperation, and proving that even in the midst of US-Iran war, peace can be built by neighbors who choose dialogue over discord.
