China’s Third Neighbor Eyes Rafale Jets Amid Russian Squeeze, Pressure From Beijing & Washington: Reports

A French publication, L’Express, claimed on February 4, 2026, that Vietnam could be one of the Rafale’s next customers.  The report claimed that Vietnam had already had the opportunity to secretly evaluate the aircraft in 2018 when two Rafales had a stopover in the country during an Indo-Pacific deployment.  “Such a contract would be historic for both countries, more than seventy years after the end of the Indochina War,” the report stated.  The EurAsian Times has reached out to Dassault Aviation and Vietnam’s Ministry of Defense for comment. This story will be updated.  The claims come amid a visible surge in Southeast Asian states’ purchases of state-of-the-art military equipment driven by rapidly evolving security threats, particularly in the South China Sea. China considers nearly the entire sea as its sovereign territory, and remains embroiled in maritime disputes with several Southeast Asian states, including Vietnam.  If Vietnam actually acquires the French jets, it would become the second Southeast Asian country to opt for the aircraft.  As of now, Indonesia has signed up for 42 Rafale fighters and received the first three jets on order last month.   “Three Rafale fighter jets have arrived in Indonesia and are now at Roesmin Nurjadin Air Base,” Brigadier General Rico Sirait, head of Indonesia’s Defence Information Bureau, said in a statement on January 27.   Vietnam’s purported interest in the aircraft would also signal that Pakistan’s claims that it dominated Rafales using the Chinese-origin J-10C during the four-day Indo-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 did not impact the aircraft’s sales.  In July last year, the French military and intelligence officials stated that China deployed its embassies to spread suspicions about the potency of Rafale jets after the May 2025 Indo-Pakistan clash.

According to their findings, the defense attaches at China’s foreign embassies led a charge to undermine Rafale sales, seeking to persuade countries that have already ordered the French-made fighters not to purchase more and to encourage other potential buyers to opt for Chinese-made planes instead.  The Chinese campaign featured video-game portrayals to mimic an alleged battle, AI-generated content, edited photos depicting purported Rafale debris, and viral social media posts. Additionally, the narrative of Chinese technological dominance was promoted through the creation of over 1,000 social media accounts, as previously reported by the EurAsian Times.  However, the campaign yielded little to no results as Jakarta pressed on for the Rafale purchase, and the Indian Air Force (IAF) seems poised to place an order for 114 Rafales as part of its Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) program.    So far, Dassault Aviation has sold the aircraft to Egypt, India, Qatar, Greece, Croatia, the United Arab Emirates, Serbia, and Indonesia. Additionally, Ukraine signed a letter of intent (LoI) with France in November 2025 for up to 100 Rafale fighters over the coming decade.

Vietnam has been looking to upgrade its air power and overall military capability to counter the challenge posed by China’s growing assertiveness in the disputed Spratly and Paracel islands.   While the two countries share close ties, Hanoi remains wary as China conducts patrols near Vietnamese-controlled reefs, sporadically harasses fishing vessels, and continues to exert pressure on energy exploration in the region.  For Vietnam, the potential purchase of Rafale will represent a major shift in policy. As a socialist state, it has historically bought military hardware from the former Soviet Union, which eventually made it possible to buy Russian weapons. Currently, the Vietnamese Air Force consists of more advanced Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, MiG-21, Su-27, and older Sukhoi Su-22s. In 2019, it also purchased the Yak-130 jet trainers.

There has been speculation for the past two years that Vietnam was seriously considering purchasing F-16 fighters from the United States. In October 2023, reports suggested that Vietnam was considering acquiring F-16 fighter jets from the US amid the strengthening of bilateral defence ties between the two countries.  In April 2025, some reports stated that Vietnam had reached an agreement with the US government to acquire 24 F-16 fighter jets following lengthy talks and negotiations between the two governments.   “When the F-16s are combined with other platforms that Vietnam would like to source from the U.S., it could all add up to the largest defence arrangement ever reached between the two nations,” a report from defence publication 19FortyFive stated at the time, citing informed sources.

These reports came months after Vietnam’s People’s Air Force (VPAF) officially received its first batch of Beechcraft T-6C Texan II trainer aircraft from the United States, marking the first time since the end of the Vietnam War that the country has inducted US-made fixed-wing aircraft into its arsenal. In fact, experts speculated that the T-6C might be tied to the future sale of the F-16 fighter. However, Vietnam never confirmed the purchase.  Notably, Vietnam’s potential purchase of Rafale would be the second F-16 defeat in the Southeast Asian region after it lost to the Saab Gripen in Thailand’s contest.

 Earlier, the Philippines obtained authorisation to buy the F-16 Block 70/72 aircraft, but paused its potential acquisition of 20 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70/72 Fighting Falcon fighter jets, valued at an estimated $5.6 billion, in September 2025 due to budget constraints.  Notably, the reports of Vietnam’s interest in Rafale come after an internal Vietnamese military report leaked in a humanitarian report revealed that Vietnam has been preparing a “second US Invasion plan” more than 50 years after the end of the bloody Vietnam War.

The plan has been drawn up for an event of an American “war of aggression.”

“There’s a consensus here across the government and across different ministries,” Ben Swanton, co-director of Project88 and the report’s author, told The Associated Press. “This isn’t just some kind of fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.”  According to the Project88 assessment, there is “little risk of a war” despite America’s “belligerent nature,” but Vietnam must be “vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.” The document states that the US could “invade or militarily intervene in Vietnam” and “use biochemical and tactical nuclear weapons” as part of its strategy planning. Therefore, it showcases that suspicions persist despite a thaw in ties achieved in the past few years.  The report states that “deep distrust remains”, even if it “coexists with a genuine strategic rapprochement.”