Trump’s strategic incoherence in the Indian Ocean

  The Washington Post By John R. Bolton Friday 20, 2026- Opinion

He can still reverse Biden’s disastrous push for Britain to cede the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

John R. Bolton was ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush and national security adviser under President Donald Trump.

In the Biden administration’s waning months, U.S. officials supported, indeed urged, Britain to cede the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Smack in the middle of the Indian Ocean, the Chagos Archipelago houses the critical Diego Garcia air and naval base, a joint American-British facility.  The exertions of both the Biden administration and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government exemplify international law theology overriding legitimate U.S.-U.K. national security interests. Donald Trump should have halted the negotiations as soon as he assumed office. That he didn’t tells us a lot about his administration’s strategic incoherence. But he still can do the right thing and kill this ill-conceived deal.  Diego Garcia has played critical roles during several Middle Eastern wars and crises. Its salience continues rising as China seeks expanded influence, even hegemony, in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s efforts to map the Indian Ocean seabed are but one example of the unfolding strategic contest. The Chagos Islands’ international legal status has long been hotly disputed. Mauritius pushed its sovereignty claims via U.N. General Assembly resolutions and advisory opinions from international courts (whose jurisdiction America does not acknowledge). Given China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative in Africa, and its highly-visible efforts to draw Mauritius closer, mean sovereignty over the Chagos is hardly an abstraction. Moreover, as a party to Africa’s nuclear-weapon-free zone, Mauritius could try to prohibit such weapons at Diego Garcia once it assumes sovereignty.  When Starmer met Trump in Washington on Feb. 27, 2025, no formal U.K.-Mauritius agreement to transfer Chagos sovereignty yet existed. Whether Trump was well-briefed beforehand is unclear, but he was open to Britain ceding sovereignty. “I have a feeling it’s going to work out very well,” he said. “They’re talking about a very long-term, powerful lease, a very strong lease, about 140 years actually. That’s a long time, and I think we’ll be inclined to go along with your country.” When the deal was formalized, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said America “welcomed the historic agreement.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth concurred.  Accepting a British long-term lease for Diego Garcia contrasts starkly with Trump’s attitude toward U.S. bases in Greenland. Even before his second inaugural, he declined to rule out military force to seize the island. One year later, he expressly threatened force so America would own Greenland for psychological reasons, a striking inconsistency not least because NATO ally Denmark exercises sovereignty over Greenland whereas Mauritius will be a dubious partner at best. Britain retaining Chagossian sovereignty was far more prudent but, apparently, not to Trump. For a while, Washington’s inertia and inattention allowed the transfer of sovereignty deal to proceed dangerously close to consummation, despite consistent opposition from Britain’s Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and others. Then, on Jan. 20, Trump proclaimed it “an act of GREAT STUPIDITY” for “our ‘brilliant’ NATO Ally,” Britain, to cede sovereignty to Mauritius.