Fully functioning North-South corridor helped by Russian-Azerbaijani thaw

  Eurasianet  Mar 27, 2026 

Suspicion mounts that Russia is using the route to ship arms to Iran. A fast thaw in relations between the Kremlin and Azerbaijan has occurred in March, enabling a strategic link connecting Russia and Iran to keep functioning, despite the ongoing US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran.

Some Western observers believe the route, known as the western branch of the North-South corridor, is being used by Russia to funnel weapons to Iran to keep the war in the Persian Gulf going. Russian-Azerbaijani relations had been tense since Russian air-defense forces accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani civilian airliner in late 2024 and subsequently refused to take responsibility for the tragedy. Until recently, the two countries had continued to trade diplomatic barbs.

But the tone in bilateral relations suddenly changed following a March 2 meeting in Baku between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuck and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, discussions that took place just days after the start of the US-Israeli aerial campaign in Iran. A statement issued by Aliyev’s office indicated that the meeting managed to settle the issue of the accidental shootdown. It also noted that both sides “reaffirmed their commitment to continuing efforts to advance the International North–South Transport Corridor.”

Since then, the tone of bilateral relations has lost its edge and now sounds more like one of strategic partners that they profess to be. Azerbaijan’s envoy in Moscow, Rahman Mustafayev, was quoted as saying in mid-March by the Azerbaijani state-connected outlet Minval; "There is an active process of normalization. There are dynamics in the trade and economic sphere, in the field of political and humanitarian contacts." On March 27, Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in comments marking the opening of an Azerbaijani theater in the Russian North Caucasus territory of Dagestan, lauded bilateral relations as “developing on a solid foundation of a common historical past.” Against the backdrop of the Russian-Azerbaijani thaw, Overchuk recently said that the North-South corridor was functioning normally, specifically thanking Azerbaijan for ensuring the route’s smooth operation. State-aligned media in Azerbaijan of late have published commentaries touting the corridor, with one outlet describing the country as the “logistical backbone of the North-South” route.

Concern is growing in the United States and Europe Union that Russia will soon send, if it is not already doing so, arms and equipment, along with medical supplies and humanitarian aid, via the North-South corridor to Iran in amounts that would allow Tehran to maintain, or even expand its drone counter-attack strategy, according to a March 26 report published by the New York Times. Russia denies supplying Iran with weaponry.

Earlier this year, Azerbaijan inked a “charter on strategic partnership” with the United States, focusing on expanding trade ties. Baku also maintains a strong security relationship with Israel. But apparently North-South considerations in Azerbaijan’s geostrategic calculus slightly outweigh the opportunities presented by closer relations with the United States and Israel, although Baku still is eager to be perceived as neutral in the US-Israeli-Iran conflict.

Lackluster trade data with the United States may help explain Azerbaijan’s approach on the North-South corridor. Despite the hype around the signing of a Washington-brokered Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal, and an agreement to construct a trade route known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), US-Azerbaijani trade volume totaled just under $1.6 billion in 2025, an over 11 percent decline over the previous year’s total. And trade volume was down 25 percent during the first two months of this year, compared to the same period in 2025.