Despite Growth Plans, Trade Between Kazakhstan and Russia Declined in 2025

Trade and economic ties between Kazakhstan and Russia showed signs of slowing in 2025.

By the end of the year, bilateral trade totaled $27.4 billion, a slight decrease compared with the previous year. The figures were announced by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade and Integration, Arman Shakkaliev, following talks in Astana between Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. A year earlier, bilateral trade had demonstrated growth. In 2024, trade turnover increased by 3% to reach $27.8 billion, largely driven by rising imports of Russian goods into Kazakhstan. At the same time, exports of Kazakhstani products to Russia declined, pointing to a persistent imbalance in the structure of trade.

The contraction recorded in 2025 reflects a broader trend, a slowdown in growth while overall trade volumes remain relatively high. Despite the decline, both sides continue to set ambitious targets for expanding economic cooperation. “At the same time, the goal has been set to bring bilateral trade to $30 billion. During the meeting of the heads of government, measures and priority sectors that could generate additional trade growth were discussed. These include energy, commerce, transport and logistics. We also reviewed issues related to the negotiation process and our integration agenda,” Shakkaliev said. Kazakh authorities expect digitalisation measures to help accelerate trade flows.

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Finance, Yerzhan Birzhanov, outlined plans to introduce electronic waybills and modernize 30 checkpoints along the Kazakhstan–Russia border. These steps are expected to reduce transit times and improve operational transparency. Russia remains one of the largest investors in Kazakhstan’s economy. “There is a very significant presence of Russian business in Kazakhstan, and we welcome it. We are ready to explore new areas of cooperation. I am confident that there are ample opportunities for this. The Government of Kazakhstan will make every effort to intensify and enhance our cooperation,” Bektenov said.

In turn, Mishustin highlighted prospects for further joint initiatives. “There is considerable potential in bilateral cooperation to launch joint projects in energy, industry, transport infrastructure, agriculture and the digital economy,” he stated. In addition to economic issues, the two sides discussed joint efforts to preserve the ecosystem of the Caspian Sea and implement environmental initiatives. External factors are also influencing trade dynamics. In particular, tighter foreign trade procedures introduced by Russia could reshape logistics routes and alter commodity flows across Central Asia.